A Perspective on Numbers
With the COVID pandemic has come a lot of numbers. We are getting daily reports of local, state, national and worldwide numbers on new cases, positivity rates, deaths, etc. For many, these numbers can be overwhelming and, after a while, seem insignificant. We get fatigued by the data, and we don’t know what’s important any more. So, I wanted to focus on one specific number, in one specific area. Let’s talk about the number of weekly deaths due to COVID in Texas.
Let me state here, if you “don’t believe the numbers,” you can stop reading now. I recognize that reported numbers are not 100% accurate, but I believe the reported numbers regarding COVID are as accurate as the reported numbers for everything else listed on the graph. I’m not here to debate the validity of the numbers, but rather to give some perspective on how the COVID numbers relate to the typical top causes of death in Texas.
On an annual basis, the top five causes of death in Texas are heart disease, cancer, stroke, lung disease and accidents. These are fairly consistent year-to-year. I’ve also included flu in this graph, partly because COVID is commonly compared to the flu, and partly because the weekly death rates can get pretty high during a bad flu season.
The graph here shows how average weekly deaths due to these six causes compare with recent COVID weekly deaths since May 3. As you can see, coming out of our shelter-in-place order we were averaging about as many deaths per week (about 200) as stroke, lung disease and accidents each cause in a typical week. However, following that we saw a sharp increase in COVID cases, and about a month ago we started seeing a sharp increase in deaths. Within a couple of weeks, we were averaging more weekly COVID deaths than either of the top two killers, heart disease and cancer, and this week there were more COVID deaths than a typical week of the top three causes of death in Texas (heart disease, cancer and stroke) combined.
This chart and these numbers should be alarming. This is what the true effect of this illness could look like if left unchecked. Fortunately, the number of COVID cases in Texas has started to decline with increased adherence to recommended measures, which means that the weekly death rates should start to level off and decline over the next couple of weeks. However, we cannot afford to get too comfortable again. We must be vigilant with taking precautions to protect ourselves and others.