Is it safe to go out?

Is it safe to go out?

For many reasons – economic, mental health, religious, physical health, relationships, education, etc – all of us are eager to re-enter the outside world in the ways we did before.  And, as governmental restrictions relax, and people are left to make their own decisions, many are wondering if it is safe for them to re-enter society.  And, the answer is simple – it depends.

If you’re asking is it as safe now to gather publicly as it was prior to this pandemic, then the answer is undoubtedly no.  COVID is a very real disease, which is highly contagious, difficult to recognize in many, and is dangerous, particularly to those at highest risk (increased age and pre-existing health conditions).  In fact, the disease is no less contagious or deadly than it ever has been.  Fortunately, our efforts to “flatten the curve” have been effective to limit the community spread, which has prevented the local health systems from being overwhelmed and has helped protect the most vulnerable.  However, even with the full force of those actions, the weekly number of deaths from COVID has matched or exceeded those of the two most consistently deadly health conditions in the US, heart disease and cancer, over the last month.  It has also consistently been more deadly, by 2-3 fold, than the worst weeks of a typical flu season.  And, that has been with the significant restrictions we’ve put in place.  One would assume, based on the experience of other countries, that less restrictions would have led to more infections and increased mortality. 

 If you’re asking is it safer now to go out than it was during the early phases of the COVID quarantine, then the answer is probably yes.  Based on the public awareness of this infection, the social distancing practices put in place, the increasing use of face masks, and the self-isolation of those with symptoms, I think the community spread has slowed down, or at least stabilized.  However, this is dependent on the continued community willingness to abide by these recommendations.  I think that you can fairly safely enter businesses that are strictly enforcing government recommendations.  But, again, this depends on businesses and community members to all do their part.  If you are at high risk, I would recommend having someone else manage many of your basic tasks – grocery shopping, meal delivery, medication pick-up, etc – and limit your outings to only those that are necessary.  If you’re not at high risk, I encourage you to respect the recommendations for limiting the spread of COVID, not out of fear for your own personal wellbeing, but for the wellbeing of your entire community.

 If you’re asking will it ever be safe to go out in public again, then the answer is confidently yes.  But this will take time.  It will be awhile until we can quickly identify and isolate those who are infected.  This will take accurate, readily available point-of-care tests (like flu and strep tests).  It will be awhile until a safe and effective vaccine is available.  This is likely the key to a return to normal, but creating a vaccine, testing it for safety, and distributing to everyone in the world, will take time.  *Side Note* - The likelihood of herd immunity developing without a vaccine is very small, and lifting restrictions in an attempt to achieve this is dangerous.  It will be awhile until an effective medication or treatment protocol is developed to minimize the impact of infection.  We have early information about the safety and effectiveness of medications and other treatments (such as donated plasma), but it will be quite some time until we have reliable evidence to support any particular treatment. 

So, is it safe to go out?  It is not as safe as it was, and not as safe as it will be.  As a physician, I care deeply about the wellbeing of people.  That includes not only physical and mental health, but financial health, spiritual health, emotional health and intellectual health.  But for any of those to matter, we must be alive.  As difficult as it is, a rush to return to normal will not help us resolve this problem any faster.  This virus is oblivious to our desires for human interaction.  In fact, it is our innate need for community that makes this virus so powerful.  So, I encourage you to be smart, to be patient and to be kind.